The Next 4 Weeks…

I write this from our new office just South of Blackfriars Bridge. Today is the first full day back in the City since we all left rather suddenly when we were advised to work from home in the televised address by Boris Johnson at 17:00 on Monday the 16th of March. I suspect our working practise will never go back to life before Covid. We will come in to London a few days every week and when we do it won’t be to a typical office space but to a more flexible desk hopping arrangement. On my commute this morning I got the impression that many companies are following the same procedure judging by the number of laptops on display.

I strongly suspect that September will be one of the most important months for the UK in the last 10 years. There are two reasons for this:

  1. Firstly and perhaps the most obvious reason is that there is a huge push by the government for children to go back to school and workers to return to work. If this fails then the outlook for the rest of the year looks very uncertain.
  2. Secondly for most companies Sep marks the end of Q3. It is the figures from Q3 which many Finance teams will use to plot their course through 2021.

Our view is that the month will be better than expected and certainly much better than you will read about in the press. Early signs are that are companies are hiring, people are going out more and house prices have never been so high. Some of this is due to artificial inducements by the government but a lot is due to the natural movement of the economy. The next 4 weeks have never been so important!